South Middlesex Times

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, questions arise about the potential for another October Surprise—a late-breaking news story that could alter the course of the campaign. This election season has already seen significant events, from an assassination attempt on former President Trump to Joe Biden stepping down in favor of Kamala Harris.

David Greenberg, a professor at Rutgers University and an expert in American political history, discussed with Rutgers Today the origins and impact of these unexpected developments.

The term "October Surprise" was popularized in 1980 during Jimmy Carter's presidency. Carter's inability to secure the release of Iranian hostages contributed to his declining poll numbers against Ronald Reagan. The hoped-for last-minute success in freeing the hostages never materialized. Greenberg noted, "Afterward, there were suggestions that Reagan’s campaign conspired with the Iranians to hold the hostages through the election."

Historically notable October Surprises include:

- In October 1992, former defense secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted for his role in the Iran-Contra scandal, impacting George Bush Sr.'s re-election bid.

- Just before the 2000 election, it emerged that George Bush Jr. had been arrested for drunk driving; however, this did not significantly affect Al Gore's campaign.

- In 2016, both a videotape of Trump making controversial comments and FBI director James Comey's decision to reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails were considered October Surprises.

By 2020, any significant news in October was labeled as such. Examples include President Trump's hospitalization with COVID-19 and revelations regarding Hunter Biden's laptop.

Greenberg assessed their effectiveness: "The only October Surprise that seems to have had a direct impact on the outcome of an election was Comey’s investigation of Clinton." He observed that after Comey's announcement, Clinton's lead over Trump narrowed significantly.

Looking ahead to October 2024, Greenberg remarked on whether more surprises are likely: "Well, if I expected it, it wouldn’t be a surprise, would it?"

Regarding their current relevance given early voting and fewer swing voters: "A true October Surprise – a genuinely big news event...could still shake up the presidential race," said Greenberg. However, smaller stories are unlikely to change much.