South Middlesex Times

As the November 5 general election approaches, polls are once again becoming a focal point in discussions about their influence on public opinion and electoral results. Recent elections have seen polling accuracy both praised and criticized, leading to questions about what to expect this time.

Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, emphasized the importance of polls: “Polls are still the most systematic way we have of estimating public opinion,” she said. However, she cautioned that "while polls offer valuable insights, they’re not crystal balls."

Koning highlighted the challenges pollsters face and how voters should interpret data this year. She described polling as "the only quantifiable, systematic method we have of estimating what the public thinks in a way in which all voices are represented." This is especially relevant for issues that do not appear on ballots.

Regarding poll accuracy, Koning noted that factors such as who conducts the poll and the political environment can affect results. She stated that poll results are survey estimates bound by statistical uncertainty. Polls can indicate if a race is close or reveal public sentiment but are not meant to predict winners.

Since 2016, pollsters have worked on addressing challenges like including education in weighting data to capture underrepresented groups such as low-educated white voters. Some now also weight based on vote recall from previous elections or partisan identity. However, distrust among certain voter groups remains a significant challenge.

Koning explained how national representation in polling works through random sampling. This method gives each population member an equal chance of being included in a study. The margin of error reflects how closely survey estimates match true population values.

She acknowledged that people sometimes lie or exaggerate responses but said these instances usually balance out statistically. A more pressing issue is nonresponse bias due to declining trust in polls among some segments.

The margin of error describes expected deviations between survey estimates and actual population values if everyone were surveyed. It considers sample size, response rate, variability, and other factors.

To distinguish good polls from bad ones amidst conflicting data, Koning recommended consulting sites that analyze polling data according to best practices. She advised being informed about who conducted a poll and its methodology as indicators of quality.